FUTUREMATH Ltd
Physicist Dr Michael Lauren is one of the few commentators in the major New Zealand media to point out the flaws in the traditional “it’s time in that counts” approach to stock market investment.
Dr Lauren has shown that fluctuations within any given year can be much greater than considerably longer periods, meaning that a decade’s worth of gains can be wiped out in a few days of losses. This idea has recently been written about in the best-selling book “The Black Swan” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
In this talk, Dr Lauren will explain why share market investment is not as simple as “it’s time in that counts”. The talk will be of great importance to anyone trying to use quantitative methods to trade shares.
It follows on from a talk that Dr Lauren gave to STANZ in 2002, and a popular article that appeared in the NZ Herald at the same time.
Topics to be addressed include:
• Unpredictability and volatility
• How rare events have big impacts and the dangers of over-fitting data
• How the market really prices shares
• Why this makes charting so valuable
• What trading techniques are likely to work in the long term